| Summary: |
The theoretical framework that informs dividend studies is somewhat loose. This makes it difficult to test competing views on dividend behaviour. One view is that it reflects a useful discipline on managerial autonomy to invest; another view is that it represents a constraint on investment due to misinformed or short-term investors. As a first step in researching this issue, this paper estimates a dividend pay-out relationship for South Africa. Estimated results are obtained for separate panels of listed and unlisted non-financial firms. Among the notable results, we find that standard proxies for investment opportunity do not generally find significance. The effect of past profitability, firm size and age are in line with developed country results, but the tendency to smooth dividends seems weaker, particularly for unlisted firms. Leverage is generally negative for the listed sample in line with existing literature, but the sign is reversed for the unlisted sample. There is weak evidence that a major tax reform, effective after 2012, increased the smoothing, and possibly also the trend in the level, of dividends. Payout behaviour seems to differ considerably by industry, but ownership effects are only observable for larger firms.
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