| Summary: |
There are multiple estimates of global monetary and multidimensional poverty, but there are still no estimates of
populations at risk of social exclusion worldwide. This
paper fills this gap by estimating the share and number of
populations at risk of exclusion globally and regionally. It
develops a conceptual framework of social exclusion that
builds on Sen’s capability approach and emphasizes the
relative, multidimensional, and dynamic features of exclusion. The paper also develops a macro counting measure of
population groups that are particularly vulnerable to exclusion based on identity, circumstances, and socioeconomic
conditions. The empirical strategy surveys the most reliable sources of vulnerable populations across countries and
develops a protocol to avoid double-counting of individuals
at risk of social exclusion. Overall, between 2.33 billion
and 2.43 billion people—roughly 32 percent of the global
population—are estimated to be at risk of being socially
excluded. The South Asia and East Asia and Pacific regions
contain 1.3 billion such people, with India and China alone
home to 840 million of them. Meanwhile, 52 percent of
Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is vulnerable to exclusion,
the greatest share of any region. The paper also discusses
several implications of these estimates, emphasizing that
policies targeting the poor might not be sufficient to tackle
social exclusion.
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