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Mitigating heat-related mortality risk in Shanghai, China: system dynamics modeling simulations

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Main author:	Liu, Xiaochen
Other authors:	Tian, Zhan Sun, Laixiang Liu, Junguo Wu, Wei Xu, Hanqing Sun, Landong Wang, Chunfang
Format:	Journal Article
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id	eprints-34380
recordtype	eprints
institution	SOAS, University of London
collection	SOAS Research Online
language	English
language_search	English
description	Numerous studies in epidemiology, meteorology, and climate change research have demonstrated a significant association between abnormal ambient temperature and mortality. However, there is a shortage of research attention to a systematic assessment of potential mitigation measures which could effectively reduce the heat-related morbidity and mortality risks. This study first illustrates a conceptualization of a systems analysis version of urban framework for climate service (UFCS). It then constructs a system dynamics (SD) model for the UFCS and employs this model to quantify the impacts of heat waves on public health system in Shanghai and to evaluate the performances of two mitigation measures in the context of a real heat wave event in July 2013 in the city. Simulation results show that in comparison with the baseline without mitigation measures, if the hospital system could prepare 20% of beds available for emergency response to heat waves once receiving the warning in advance, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 40–60 (15.8–19.5%) on the 2 days of day 7 and day 8; if increasing the minimum living allowance of 790 RMB/month in 2013 by 20%, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 50–70 (17.7–21.9%) on the 2 days of day 8 and day 12. This tool can help policy makers systematically evaluate adaptation and mitigation options based on performance assessment, thus strengthening urban resilience to changing climate.
format	Journal Article
author	Liu, Xiaochen
author_facet	Liu, Xiaochen Tian, Zhan Sun, Laixiang Liu, Junguo Wu, Wei Xu, Hanqing Sun, Landong Wang, Chunfang
authorStr	Liu, Xiaochen
author_letter	Liu, Xiaochen
author2	Tian, Zhan Sun, Laixiang Liu, Junguo Wu, Wei Xu, Hanqing Sun, Landong Wang, Chunfang
author2Str	Tian, Zhan Sun, Laixiang Liu, Junguo Wu, Wei Xu, Hanqing Sun, Landong Wang, Chunfang
title	Mitigating heat-related mortality risk in Shanghai, China: system dynamics modeling simulations
publisher	Springer Nature
publishDate	2020
url	https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/34380/