Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems

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Main author: Cooper, Gregory S.
Other authors: Dearing, John A.
Format: Journal Article           
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id eprints-29877
recordtype eprints
institution SOAS, University of London
collection SOAS Research Online
language English
language_search English
description Shaping social-ecological systems towards sustainable, desirable and equitable futures is often hampered by complex human-natural feedbacks, emergence and nonlinearities. Consequently, the future of systems vulnerable to collapse is uncertain under plausible trajectories of environmental change, socioeconomic development and decision-making. We develop a modelling approach that incorporates driver interactions and feedbacks to operationalise future "safe and just operating spaces" for sustainable development. Monte Carlo simulations of fish catch from India's Chilika lagoon are compared to conditions that are ecologically and socioeconomically desirable as per today's norms. Akin to a satellite-navigation system, the model identifies multidimensional pathways giving at least a 75 chance of achieving the desirable future, whilst simultaneously diverting the system away from undesirable pathways. Critically for regional governance, the driver limits and trade-offs associated with regulating the resource are realised. More widely, this approach represents an adaptable framework that explores the resilience of social-ecological interactions and feedbacks underpinning regional sustainable development.
format Journal Article
author Cooper, Gregory S.
author_facet Cooper, Gregory S.
Dearing, John A.
authorStr Cooper, Gregory S.
author_letter Cooper, Gregory S.
author2 Dearing, John A.
author2Str Dearing, John A.
title Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems
publisher Elsevier
publishDate 2019
url https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/29877/

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