Understanding 2016: China, Brexit and Trump in the History of Uneven and Combined Development

Main author: Boyle, Christopher
Other authors: Rosenberg, Justin
Format: Journal Article           
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id eprints-30058
recordtype eprints
institution SOAS, University of London
collection SOAS Research Online
language English
language_search English
description This article uses the theory of uneven and combined development (U&CD) to produce a novel explanation of ‘Brexit and Trump’ – the two shock political events of 2016. The argument proceeds in three steps. First, we identify the global conjuncture of historical unevenness in which the votes occurred: how the neoliberal transformation of the advanced capitalist countries was synchronized with the radically different process of primitive accumulation in China. Second, we apply the theory of U&CD to this peculiar ‘simultaneity of the non‐simultaneous’: the ‘big country’ effects of China's industrialization, we find, were thrice multiplied by its combination with the advanced sectors of the world economy, which accelerated China's take‐off, brought forward its export phase, and widened its export profile at a moment of maximum openness in international trade. Finally, this produced the pattern of development that led to the events of 2016: the resultant trade shocks intensified the internal inequalities of British and American societies in ways that match the geography of the Leave and Trump votes. The analysis has a wider intellectual implication too, for the phenomena of historical unevenness and combination are intrinsic to the history of the global political economy; and the theory of U&CD therefore has a unique contribution to make to the field of International Political Economy.
format Journal Article
author Boyle, Christopher
author_facet Boyle, Christopher
Rosenberg, Justin
authorStr Boyle, Christopher
author_letter Boyle, Christopher
author2 Rosenberg, Justin
author2Str Rosenberg, Justin
title Understanding 2016: China, Brexit and Trump in the History of Uneven and Combined Development
publisher Wiley
publishDate 2019
url https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/30058/